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Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Most homes sales are lender mediated (foreclosures)

Weekly Market Activity Report

For 19 weeks out of the past 20, pending sales have been higher than during the equivalent week in 2007. There were 649 pending sales for the week ending November 15, up a healthy 19.1 percent from the same week last year. Of these newly signed purchase agreements, 53.5 percent were for lender-mediated foreclosure or short sale properties and 41.9 percent were listed at $150,000 or below. Over the last three months, there have been more than 25 percent more pending sales than during the same time in 2007. A healthy portion of these sales have been in the lower price ranges.

On the supply side, the inventory of homes for sale currently sits at 29,365, which is 9.0 percent lower than this time last year. New listings for the most recent reporting week were 9.0 percent lower than a year ago, and only 41.7 of new listings were lender-mediated.

The fact that a much higher proportion of sales are lender-mediated (53.5 percent) compared to new listings (41.7 percent) is an indication that foreclosures and short sales are not languishing on the open market. Although we still have a ways to go, this is a hopeful sign. The sooner the lender-mediated inventory is absorbed, the sooner our market can return to a traditional recovery process.

Monday, November 17, 2008

Foreclosures are where its at.

Weekly Market Activity Report

As the fall temperature persists at near freezing levels, home sales activity remains stubbornly higher than it was a year ago, despite weakened consumer confidence and a sluggish economy. Pending sales for the week ending November 8 were 16.9 percent higher than the same week in 2007, and over the last three months have been a robust 26.6 percent higher. Lender-mediated foreclosures and short sales in the lower price ranges are driving the swing upwards; 54.4 percent of the most recent reporting week's pending sales were lender-mediated and 43.2 percent were priced under $150,000.

Supply remains down from last year but appears to have reached a plateau of sorts. We have had roughly 9 percent fewer total homes for sale than at the same point last year for the last 5 consecutive weeks. New supply coming onto the market continues to slow its velocity and will likely remain commensurate in pace with fourth-quarter 2007. A total of 41.1 percent of new listings over the past week were lender-mediated.

Tuesday, November 11, 2008

Ignore the news, our market is different and its looking up.

Weekly Market Activity Report

There is further evidence that home sellers (both traditional and lender-mediated) in the Twin Cities housing market are becoming more successful in attracting buyer interest by pricing their properties attractively from the get-go. This is having the bonus effect of limiting further extension of market time and reducing the number of price concessions. For instance, the Average Days on Market Until Sale in October was 141, down from last year by 0.8 percent. This is the first year-over-year decline in market time since we began tracking the figures in 2006.

Similarly, the Percent of Original List Price Received at Sale in October sat at 91.3 percent. While still down from last year, it is only down 1.9 percent, compared to the more robust drops of 4 percent or higher seen during most of 2008. In other words, the market is still tilted in the buyer's favor, but sellers and banks are responding with more realistic prices at the time of first listing.

For the week ending November 1, there were 21 percent fewer new listings than there were at this time last year, and 1.4 percent fewer pending sales. This is the first downward year-over-year movement in pending sales since June.

The Housing Affordability Index has increased slightly in November to 161, while November's Months Supply of Inventory shows a drop to 9 months.

Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Housing market is slowly getting better in MN

Weekly Market Activity Report

The big letdown in home sales that many of us have expected following the recent drops in consumer confidence has yet to materialize in the Twin Cities housing market. For the week ending October 25, there were 602 pending sales, up 17.1 percent over the same week last year. Despite the uncertainties swirling in the general economy, home sales continue to post year-over-year increases every week. Lender-mediated sales continue to grow market share, as 51.1 percent of pending sales for the most recent reporting week were foreclosures or short sales, which should mean continued declines in median sales prices.

New listings for the same week were down 2.0 percent from the same week in 2007, and the total number of active homes for sale is down by 9.2 percent year-over-year.

This week's edition of the MAAR Weekly Market Activity Report features an updated Supply-Demand Ratio for November of 10.72, which means that there will be approximately 10.72 houses for every buyer during the month of November. This is down 13.9 percent from November 2007's figure of 12.45.